The Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs will rematch tonight in the CFP Championship. These two teams met earlier this season in the SEC title game, where Alabama convincingly won the contest 41-24. Both teams are coming off blowouts, where Alabama won by 21 points and Georgia won by 23 points. Georgia is looking for their first CFP Championship win, while Alabama is seeking to notch their 4th CFP title. Let's get to the breakdown.
Alabama, as we all know, has a great football program. Veteran coach Nick Saban has led 'Bama to their 5th CFP Championship appearance in 6 years. Their offense is 15th in the country, averaging 41.4 points per game this season. Sophomore QB Bryce Young didn't do extremely well through the air against Cincinnati in the CFP semifinal (181 yards), but he has thrown at least 2 TDs in every game this season. The Heisman Trophy winner only owns 5 interceptions on the year, owning a sweet 9.2/1 TD/INT ratio. He should have no problem against a Georgia defense that conceded 421 yards and 3 TDs in the SEC Championship game. RB Brian Robinson Jr. absolutely feasted on the Cincinnati defense, rushing for an astounding 204 yards in that game. The Sr. is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, which means he can establish the run and give his QB manageable 3rd downs. Junior Wideout Jameson Williams is the leading receiver for the Crimson Tide, and much like Robinson Jr., he had himself a night in the SEC title game vs Georgia. He hauled in 7 catches, good for 184 yards and 2 TDs. The Alabama defense isn't as stout as Georgia's, ranking a sad 119th in passing. They gave up 340 yards to Georgia QB Stetson Bennett in their previous matchup, but did secure 2 INTs, one a pick-six that sealed the SEC title. Now, they did shut down Georgia RB James Cook, only allowing 38 yards on 11 carries. They will need to repeat these successes to keep the Bulldogs one-dimensional tonight. If Alabama can keep Bryce Young rolling, and establish the rushing offense (currently ranked 113th), they will possess a high-octane offense that Georgia can't keep up with. As long as the defense can get enough stops to give the offense a chance at breaking away, Alabama should be the program showered in confetti tonight.
Georgia is hungry for revenge tonight after losing in the SEC title game back on December 4th. The once #1 team in the country comes into this game at the 3 seed, but they are much better than their seeding suggests. They own the 11th best scoring defense in the country, 17th best rushing defense, and 24th best scoring offense. The Bulldogs are a force to be reckoned with. QB Stetson Bennett is solid, holding a 178.0 passer rating and a 3.9/1 TD/INT ratio this season. WR Brock Bowers did great in their last outing against the Crimson Tide, accumulating 139 yards and 1 TD on 10 receptions. RB James Cook is averaging only 46.5 yards per game this season, and is going to need a boost today if the Bulldogs want to win. He's only amassed more than 100 rushing yards once this season. The Bulldogs are one-dimensional on offense if the Senior RB can't establish his presence on the ground, forcing Bennett to throw more and more. The usually sturdy Bulldog D gave up an uncharacteristic 41 points to Alabama in the SEC title game, and will need to keep Bryce Young in check in order to come out victorious tonight. The Georgia pass rush, averaging just over 3 sacks a game, had none in the SEC Championship. They also had no interceptions. Georgia's focal point is the tough defense, so if they lock it down tonight and display why they average just 9.6 points allowed per game, then they will make it easier on themselves to win this game. A stingy defense and strong rushing offense will be the key to victory for the Bulldogs tonight.
Prediction
Currently, Georgia stands at 2.5 point favorites and the total is perched at 52.5. The line has not moved since opening, so bettors are pretty split. Mastermind Nick Saban figured out the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game, and will find a way to neutralize their stout defense tonight. Bryce Young will run up the score with his receiving core, and the Crimson Tide defense will do enough to stop the Bulldogs from keeping up. Georgia's James Cook will not establish himself on the ground, but I believe Stetson Bennett will have a good game, throwing for at least 300 yards and 2 TDs tonight. Both teams have great programs, but taking the underdog here just makes sense, especially considering the last matchup between the two. I'll lay the points with Alabama, but I could definitely see them winning the game outright. The O/U is tricky, and I honestly don't know which way to lean. If I had to pick, I'd probably go under. While I think Saban will figure out Georgia's defense, I don't see the Bulldogs giving up 41 points again, it's just too uncharacteristic and unlike them.
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